11 february 2019

Motivation

World in the years

Population distribution

World Population Density Distribution

Demographic Transition

  • Stage One: pre-Industrial Revolution, birth rates and death rates are both high, the level of the population stays the same
  • Stage Two: in a developing country death rates tents to diminish while birth rates stay high: population is growing
  • Stage Three: thanks to the better economic and living conditions, births starts to decrease
  • Stage Four: birth rates and death rates are both low, so population is stabilizing. Most of today's developed countries are in this stage
  • Stage Five (possible stage): here the birth rates have fallen below death rates, so the quantity of older people is bigger than the quantity of younger ones

Demographic Transition in Italy

Demographic Transition in Italy

Population Growth Rate (PGR)

\[ PGR = \frac{P(t_2) - P(t_1)}{P(t_1)(t_2 - t_1)} \]

Logistic model for Population Growth

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References and Data Sources